Can the probability of AIDS infection be calculated? Precautions for diet of AIDS patients

AIDS infection has a set of formulas. Let's take a look at the formula for calculating the probability of AIDS infection.

What is a sexually transmitted disease? Calculation formula of AIDS infection probability

Probability of HIV infection=probability of infection by the other party × Probability of behavioral infection × Probability of missed detection

instructions:

1. Regarding the probability of infection of the other party, if it is determined that the other party is an HIV infected person or patient, it will be calculated at 100%; If it is uncertain whether the other party is infected, it depends on the situation, and there are generally several situations:

① If the other party is a female worker, it can be considered to calculate based on an average of 1% (different regions have different reports, with individual online reports reaching up to 5%);

② If the other party is a male homosexual, it can be considered to calculate the HIV infection rate at 5% (there are reports in the UK that it is as high as 15% among homosexuals in London). Some experts estimate that gay men in China's major cities. The HIV infection rate may be as high as 5% -15%);

③ If it is an ordinary person, it is calculated by 0.1% (the total population of China is 13%). As of the end of April this year, 23527 cases of HIV infection have been reported in the mainland. For ease of calculation, we will amplify these data by 6.67 times to obtain a population infection rate of 0.1% for 1.356 million people;

④ If you are an intravenous drug user, you can consider calculating it at an average of 10% (the infection rate of intravenous drug users in London is 4.7%, while in the UK it is 2.3%; according to online reports, the infection rate of drug users in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places exceeds 50%, and the infection rate of local injection drug users in Ili, Xinjiang is as high as 89%);

⑤ The above situation has regional characteristics. Generally speaking, the percentage of people in high-risk areas and those in high-risk areas should be appropriately increased according to local conditions.

2. The probability of infection through the following behaviors (i.e. behavioral infection rate). Assuming the other party has been identified as an infected person:

① Passive anal intercourse without condom 0.1-3.0%

② 0.06% active anal intercourse without condom

③ Passive vaginal intercourse without condom 0.1-0.2%

④ Active vaginal intercourse without condom 0.03-0.09%

⑤ Unprotected contact between spouses (5 years) 10%

⑥ Based on the above probability, multiply sexual intercourse by 15%

⑦ Passive oral sex 0-0.04% (In a study conducted by the University of California on 102 newly infected HIV cases in gay and bisexual men, it was found that 8 cases of infection may be due to unprotected oral sex. Be careful not to interpret this statement as a population infection rate of 8%)